Comparing crypto casino bonuses is usually a massive headache. Is a 110% deposit bonus with a 45x wagering requirement actually better than a 100% bonus with a 40x requirement?
To expose the real mathematical value behind these offers, I built the Bonus EV model.
(Well, to be honest, it’s not really an expected value model, but Bonus EV name is close enough and describes the model really well in my opinion.)
Instead of just looking at the bonus numbers, the Bonus EV model calculates what is statistically left of your bankroll after you have cleared the wagering requirements. In the table below, Expected Final Bankroll (EFB) is how much $ you would have left after the bonus clearing, on average.
On cashback/rakeback style bonuses, the EFB model shows the “safety net”, meaning what you will get back if you lose the whole initial deposit of $100. As there are no wagering requirements in cashback/rakeback bonuses usually.
The math behind the Model
To create an even playing field, all calculations in this model use the same baseline:
- Standard deposit is made to all casinos: $100
- House edge is 4% (Standard 96% RTP slot)
- Free spins: Valued at $0.10 per spin (I have to think this through later if they really are worth $0.10, but we go with this now)
The Expected Final Bankroll is calculated using this formula.
Where D = Deposit in $, B = Bonus amount in $, W = Wagering volume in $, and HE = House edge in decimal number. Wagering volume is for example $4 000 for a 40x wagering requirement for a 100% bonus.
Example (100% deposit bonus + 100 free spins, wagering requirement is 35x bonus):
- You deposit $100 and get a $100 bonus value + $10 from the free spins, your bankroll starts with $210.
- Your wagering requirement in the bonus is 35x bonus in this example. Your wagering volume is then 35 x $100 = $3500.
- The 4% house edge slowly drains your bankroll during wagering, and mathematically you are left with $70 after wagering (on average).
With this Expected Final Bankroll number (like $70 on the example and 7Bit Casino below), all crypto casino bonuses are really simple to compare with each other.
Let’s look at the first 7 crypto casinos I have reviewed and their bonuses.
Casino bonuses ranked by Bonus EV model
A higher positive number in Expected Final Bankroll (EFB) means you are mathematically more likely to survive the wager and cash out. A negative number means the bonus is practically a guaranteed bust.
Here’s how the 7 first reviewed crypto casinos managed in this analysis. In the wagering column, b = bonus and d+b = deposit + bonus.
| Crypto casino | Bonus (wager) | EFB |
|---|---|---|
| #1 7Bit Casino | 100% + 100 spins (35x b) | +$70.00 |
| #2 BitStarz | 100% + 180 spins (40x b) | +$58.00 |
| #3 Coins.Game | 150% + 25 spins (35x b) | +$42.50 |
| #4 Wild.io (Match) | 120% + 75 spins (40x b) | +$35.50 |
| #5 Wild.io (Cashback) | 20% cashback (0x) | +$20.00 |
| #6 Cloudbet | 10% rakeback (0x) | +$10.00 |
| #7 Stake | No bonus | $0.00 |
| #8 BC.Game | 120% + 100 spins (40x d+b) | -$122.00 |
Bonus EV model in a nutshell
- If you like match bonuses (like 100% for instance), just pick the bonus that gives the biggest Expected Final Bankroll. Between these 8 casinos, the best is 7Bit Casino with an EFB of $70. In the long term, 7Bit’s bonus gives the most back to the players.
- If you prefer rakeback/cashback style bonuses, Wild.io is the best one here (remember to read the full bonus terms from the review).
- Of course, this model doesn’t guarantee you will always leave with a win (as casino wins the most often due the house edge) in your pocket. This model just helps you to see, which bonus is best compared to others.
This was a short introduction to my Bonus EV model. To know more about it and see the full bonus list, check my extensive bonus-article here.
As a long term plan, I will always add the new bonuses of newly reviewed casinos to this Bonus EV model. When it will have for example 30 casinos, it will be a pretty good tool to comparing bonuses. That takes some time, but I’m on it😎
Cheers,
Jake
